My Blackburn with Darwen colleague Ben Barr has done an excellent job of deconstructing the ‘welfare dependent north /poor/underclass hypothesis’ currently in (dogmatic) political vogue. His evidence is now published in the BMJ.
The coalition government wants to cut £4bn in welfare benefits to the poorest and most vulnerable citizens concentrated in northern boroughs because the ‘welfare bill has risen 45% in the last ten years’. The system, it argues, rewards the social failure of the five million people on ‘out of work state benefits’.
But this is a disingenuous representation of the real ‘welfare benefits situation’ in the UK.
Although they probably don’t know it, and the Daily Mail certainly won’t say it, the wealthiest 20% of the population – mostly in the leafy southern boroughs – get the most welfare benefits from the state.
The reason is:
- DWP welfare expenditure is comprised of both out of work benefits and state pension related spend
- The whole budget has risen in the last ten years – but mainly because improved life expectancy is increasing the number in the population above the state pension age
- Over the last ten years, spending on ‘out of work benefits’ has actually decreased slightly – particularly in more deprived (northern) areas
- Over the past ten years, spending on state pensions and related benefits has significantly increased – particularly in wealthy (southern) areas.
The figure below shows the relative costs in £billions of out of work and state pension related spending – and which is predicted to grow up to 2035 on present assumptions.
Source: Ben R Barr, Assault on Universalism: BMJ 2012; 344:e537
What I take from this is that:
- ‘What men say is true is true in its consequences’ – so even though the largest welfare recipient population are elsewhere, the ‘poor out of work northerners’ are seen as a ‘problem we can’t afford’
- There currently seems to be a significant evidence/narrative gap that is ideologically driven about welfare spend
- If the middle class support the current continued assault on universal welfare benefits they may eventually find themselves the victim rather than the ‘undeserving poor’ – as it is they, not the workless, who are ultimately set to get most from the welfare system through longer life expectancy
- That we should support social solidarity for both those out of work and those on pensions – with benefits freely and universally available to all – wherever they are.
A great blog. It would be interesting to map and then consider the value of in-work benefits to supermarkets, etc It was recently reported that wages of the big supermarkets were being subsidised by a third.
Now map tax avoidance…and you are so right about not letting the evidence get in the way of ideology.
KR
I recently had a look at the proposed PIP (Personal Independence Payments) that are set to replace DLA (Disability Living Allowance) – http://www.dwp.gov.uk/docs/pip-second-draft-assessment-regulations.pdf
I currently receive full rate of DLA for mobility as I have breathing difficulties. I use the money to lease a car under the Motability scheme. The car is my only means of being independent. I use the car so that I can work. I live in a town but work in the city 60 miles away. I work in a specialist field and there are no similar jobs locally. Without being able to drive door to door I cannot work. Long term taxi use is completely unaffordable. Without my car I cannot work.
Under the new proposed scheme you have to be wheelchair bound and unable to propel yourself to stand any chance of meeting the mobility criteria for eligibility. If you were paraplegic and could use a remote with your mouth you stand a chance of not qualifying!
I have good days and bad days. If I am sent for assessment on a good day there is no way I will qualify. If a bad day, I would potentially have to be dragged there bed bound and even then I would be too breathless to answer any questions. A week later, if I was found able to walk again I would be dubbed a benefit cheat and fraudster by the media.
So, rather than helping me to be independent – under this new proposed regime, the Government will take away my independence and ability to work and plunge me onto benefits.
Well thought out plans Cameron and Clegg!