Polling experts suggest Labour could face its worst-ever local election results, potentially losing over 1,000 council seats across England.
Today (7th May), polls have opened across England, Scotland and Wales in the largest set of elections since July 2024. More than 5,000 seats are being contested, with polling experts warning Labour could be heading for its most disappointing result yet.
Speaking to The Independent, political scientist Professor John Curtice said the elections represent a ‘remarkable calamity’ for Labour and the Conservatives, adding: ‘These elections could well provide a further significant organisational boost to the ability of [Green and Reform].’
Separate research from Professor Stephen Fisher, a political scientist at the University of Oxford, suggests Labour could lose around 1,900 councillors – around 74% of the seats it is defending. If this happens, it will be the worst local election result for any sitting prime minister on record.
Fisher’s analysis also predicts the Conservatives could lose around 1,010 councillors, while Reform could gain roughly 2,260 seats, more than tripling its local representation.
The Green Party is forecast to gain around 450 councillors, with the Liberal Democrats obtaining around 200.
Curtice said: ‘Starmer has never been a popular leader…he’s never been able to define what he is about and where he’s trying to take the country.’
He also noted that Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, is currently viewed as one of Labour’s most popular figures. Burnham was ranked as the UK’s most popular politician by YouGov.
However, he was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election by Labour’s National Executive Committee.
In London, all 32 borough councils are being contested. Labour currently controls 21 councils in the capital, but polling indicates that dominance could come under pressure in several areas.
YouGov polling shows the Greens could top the vote share in at least four councils, including Lewisham and Lambeth. Reform UK is also projected to lead in vote share in three London councils – a first for both parties.
Earlier this week, Labour sources told The Independent they are expecting a ‘bloodbath’ in Islington, while Green Party sources said they are expecting to take Hackney.
Across England, elections are also taking place in major cities including Birmingham, Manchester Newcastle and Wolverhampton, alongside councils in the North, Midlands and South.
Data from Britain Elects implies Labour is likely to retain control in most urban councils, particularly in cities such as Manchester, Birmingham and Newcastle.
However, councils including Wakefield, Sunderland and Thurrock are seen as areas where Reform could make significant gains, with projections suggesting the party could either take control outright or become the largest party without a majority.
‘The Labour vote is going first of all to the Greens; that’s the principal destination now of 2024 Labour voters who defect,’ Curtice told The Independent. ‘And then there’s the Liberal Democrats and Reform. Virtually no one is going to the Tories.
‘Reform are fighting 99.9% of the wards; the Greens are fighting 90% as well. This is a very strong sign.’
Image: Steve Houghton-Burnett/UnSplash
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