GDP estimates signal return to pre-pandemic levels in Scotland

New figures show that economic output is estimated to be back above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting encouraging signs for economic recovery in Scotland.

GDP grew by 0.8% in November, meaning that economic output is now 0.6% higher than in February 2020, before the main economic impact of Covid-19 began to be felt.

The rise was driven by strong performances by the services sector which was up by 0.5%, production which grew by 1.7% and the construction sector which is estimated to have grown by 3.6% compared to the previous month.

Economy Secretary Kate Forbes said the return to pre-pandemic levels is ‘fantastic news’ but warns that the economy still remains ‘fragile’, with recent public health measures introduced in response in the Omicron variant.

‘This is fantastic news for the Scottish economy, with Scottish GDP estimates now above pre-pandemic levels. It reveals the fundamental underlying strengths of the Scottish economy, despite the many challenges of Covid-19.

‘While we know our economic recovery remains fragile – not least due to the recent necessary public health measures introduced in response to the omicron variant – we can be confident that these latest GDP estimates signal a return to pre-pandemic levels which is extremely encouraging. 

‘The Scottish Government remains firmly focused on supporting our economy to fully recover and that is why we are working with businesses to invest in growth.’

Growth in Scotland is still behind the UK as a whole, with the latest ONS data showing that UK GDP is 0.7% higher than the level recorded in February 2020.

In related news, Covid-19 has cost businesses in cities and large town centres more than a third of their potential takings since March 2020, according to a new report from Centre for Cities.

The report found that Central London is worst affected – losing 47 weeks of sales between the first lockdown and Omicron’s onset – with businesses in Birmingham, Edinburgh and Cardiff also among the worst hit.

Photo by Jure Tufekcic